Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.118447 0.130738 0.143323 0.157148 0.171879 0.187079 0.203922
2024-12-22 0.093145 0.110924 0.130061 0.152070 0.176559 0.202852 0.233095
2024-12-29 0.080635 0.102571 0.127207 0.156626 0.190500 0.227991 0.272331
2025-01-05 0.070625 0.095411 0.124326 0.160000 0.202277 0.250254 0.308275
2025-01-12 0.062200 0.088904 0.121166 0.162147 0.211952 0.269690 0.340835
2025-01-19 0.054724 0.082598 0.117410 0.162841 0.219325 0.286059 0.369645
2025-01-26 0.053029 0.083385 0.122244 0.173958 0.239305 0.317542 0.416651
2025-02-02 0.048122 0.079339 0.120437 0.176343 0.248257 0.335606 0.447611
2025-02-09 0.044325 0.076396 0.119729 0.179856 0.258438 0.355106 0.480379
2025-02-16 0.039734 0.071857 0.116482 0.179700 0.263689 0.368352 0.505439
2025-02-23 0.038706 0.072406 0.120134 0.188714 0.280838 0.396630 0.549371
2025-03-02 0.037189 0.072042 0.122387 0.195766 0.295430 0.421772 0.589587
2025-03-09 0.033470 0.068123 0.119571 0.196044 0.301471 0.436654 0.617877
2025-03-16 0.028948 0.062498 0.113943 0.192157 0.301818 0.444238 0.637125
2025-03-23 0.027441 0.061716 0.115444 0.198371 0.315943 0.469917 0.679838
2025-03-30 0.025613 0.060195 0.115688 0.202700 0.327494 0.492330 0.718581
2025-04-06 0.023586 0.058105 0.114881 0.205377 0.336711 0.511702 0.753537
2025-04-13 0.021380 0.055440 0.112967 0.206255 0.343315 0.527585 0.784029
2025-04-20 0.021777 0.057719 0.119106 0.219374 0.367441 0.567243 0.846097
2025-04-27 0.020179 0.055970 0.118519 0.222187 0.376852 0.587105 0.882221
2025-05-04 0.018949 0.054816 0.118826 0.226319 0.388159 0.609606 0.921999
2025-05-11 0.017101 0.052181 0.116450 0.226138 0.393129 0.623437 0.950293
2025-05-18 0.017108 0.053468 0.120865 0.236712 0.413933 0.659189 1.008166